A total of 41% of builders’ merchant branches expect their sales to increase in Q1 compared with sales over the same period in 2025, according to new research.
MRA Building Market Reports’ latest quarterly update also showed that around a quarter expect sales to fall in Q1, giving a net figure of 15% who expected their sales to increase. MRA said this was a major improvement on expectations recorded for Q4, when the net was minus one per cent.
National or regional merchant branches have higher sales expectations and are more confident in the market than merchants with one to two branches, the research found. The survey also revealed that merchant branches in the North and the Midlands had higher expectations than those in the South.
Merchants’ confidence in the market was poor in Q4 with no improvement recorded in Q1 2026, MRA cited. A net minus 15% of merchants were less confident compared to the same period in 2025. Most merchants are therefore less confident in the market now than they were last year. Of those that were less confident, the largest share said it was due to a general lack of demand and low footfall in the branch. The weather and the economic and political situation were also common themes in the comment section.
Anna Eriksson of MRA Reports said: “In terms of the outlook for the market, demand remains weak, and Q4 2025 was disappointing for many merchants. We hoped that confidence would build as interest rates and inflation approached more normal levels, but the year started with new tariffs and a war in the Middle East, creating more uncertainty around material, energy and fuel prices, as well as a risk of supply chain disruption.
“However, though merchants’ confidence in the market is low, their sales expectations and confidence in the performance of their own business tell a different story. Some businesses are clearly doing well despite the challenging climate; some have even continued to expand in Q1. Other than that, there are no obvious signs of a major uplift in activity in the short term, but we expect RMI work to start to recover this year and are optimistic for the longer term as more newbuild projects stuck in the pipeline are given the go-ahead.”
